It is now an earning report season and the graph below clearly show how wrong experts have been in guessing the Q1 earnings.
I am reading through the latest letter from Warren Buffet. There are several valuable lessons to learn from the master of value investment. Berkshire Hathaway has four major operations, which Buffet touched on in this letter. The key point here is that each operation works well in different stages of the financial cycle. Together, they make a good portfolio for all time.
Reading an article like this reminds me of the work by psychologist Philip Tetlock who studied expert predictions in areas such as economics and politics. What he found was truly shocking. They are on average only slightly better at predicting than random guessings, and are worse than basic extrapolations.